Precious metal company Warrants Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious metal company Warrants

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To: E. Charters who wrote (641)	4/16/2007 10:50:39 PM
From: LLCF	of 681

<As far as VI goes, you do need the historical price> Historical Vol is used as as a guide to what one puts in the model as the user sees fit...he may not use it at all... of course you have to put a vol number in the model! No one disputes that, nor did I. However, your assertion that everyone blindly uses the last 100 day for extrapolating the future in false... and in fact NOBODY who knows what they're doing does that, NOR do they plug in only past Vol numbers to predict future movements. Your post DOES clarify how Hvol is derived however, which is nice since it shows that it is NOT some momentum number but simply derived from SD of daily price changes, positive or negative. dAK

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