Sadr Plays His Last Political Card
CAPTAIN ED
Moqtada al-Sadr has played his final political card in Iraq by withdrawing his ministers from the Cabinet of Nouri al-Maliki. The move puts pressure on Maliki to find other factions to support his majority, and so far, Maliki has refused to buckle to demands for a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops:
"The head of Moqtada Sadr's Iraqi parliament bloc says the radical cleric has ordered his ministers to withdraw from the cabinet.
Mr Sadr's bloc, which has six cabinet ministers, is trying to press Prime Minister Nouri Maliki to set a timetable for a US troop withdrawal.
Mr Maliki has refused, saying a pullout depends on conditions on the ground.
Analysts say Mr Sadr holds great power among Iraq's Shia majority, but the unity government is likely to survive."
If Maliki survives the withdrawal of Sadr's support, Sadr is finished politically. He drew only middling crowds in Najaf for his exhortation for the removal of American troops -- about 15,000 in what should be his power base. His failure to appear at the rally, or indeed in Iraq for the past three months, has apparently eroded his influence both among Shi'ites and on the government. A failure to bring down Maliki will marginalize his extremism and strengthen Maliki among moderates.
Sadr still can cause problems with his Mahdi Army, but even that seems to be less of a threat than before. The US/Iraqi surge strategy has pushed them out of their neighborhood strongholds, and the momentum has shifted to the US. The bigger issue for American troops is the Sunni insurgencies, and a weakened Sadr might mitigate all but the al-Qaeda in Iraq form of terrorism. AQI has even the other Ba'athist-remnant groups at odds, and if the Iraqi government moves away from Sadr and the Mahdis, they may be more likely to cut deals to end the fighting.
Or, Sadr could prevail. He has a nasty habit of returning from the almost-dead -- a habit enabled by Iraqi and American policies to engage him politically. It looks like Sadr is on the run now, and hopefully this time the US and Maliki governments have the good sense to keep him that way.
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