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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 159.42-1.2%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST
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To: LarsA who wrote (62798)4/18/2007 9:19:04 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer  Read Replies (1) of 197271
 
Is the delay in TD-SCDMA all about expiring QCOM basic patents?

Lars, the delay appears to be entirely due to problems in the technology. China has not granted WCDMA or CDMA2000 licenses, pending test results of TD-SCDMA. They keep on testing, and time after time the test results disappoint, causing further delays in hopes that at some time in the near future TD-SCDMA will be successful enough to warrant licensing that technology alone, and nothing else.

It matters little that TD-SCDMA does not work as well (or maybe doesn't work at all), in comparison to WCDMA or other high speed data technologies. After all, with a domestic demand of well over 500 million users, one can put up with a few glitches in return for zero or almost zero royalties and zero compatibility with GSM or CDMA.

That is, the Chinese can create their own standard, given the huge potential market. And a totalitarian government has the ability to set whatever standard it chooses. It is unlikely that the current government, notwithstanding its allowing a small amount of free market economics, can really avoid the political and corrupt practices that generally work in the opposite direction of an efficient market.

On the other hand, China isn't an isolated country. They still trade with the rest of the world. And if they are in the habit of failing to honor others' intellectual property, their own near term successes will be short lived.

Art
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