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Technology Stocks : ESLR - Evergreen Solar

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To: HEXonX who wrote (44)4/19/2007 2:48:56 PM
From: Daniel Simon  Read Replies (1) of 112
 
I'm disappointed with a couple things this quarter. First of all I'm happy that ESLR is confirming that ASPs are trending down 5%/yr (or more) starting mid-last year. If they had not admitted this, I'd be extremely suspicious of their honesty.

I think they are much too rosy on where ASPs are headed. Keeping in mind that ASPs rose between 2004-2006, along with the industries cell maker margins, and that lots of silicon capacity is coming on line in the next 18-24 months, ASPs will go down faster than 5%/yr over the next couple years.

Second thing that bothers me is what seems like a move to give away the shop (or 15% of it at least) to DC Chemicals in order to secure silicon supply over the next 4ish years. Given that silicon capacity is expected to more than double over that time frame, I think they are overpaying.

Additionally most other cell manufactures have been experiencing historically high margins in recent years...and ESLR is losing money. :( Yet they claim to have a process that uses the smallest amount of silicon/watt in the industry. What are they doing wrong?
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