French Elections 2007- Is A Rudy Sarkozy Emerging?
By podcasts@redstate.com (Redstate Network) on Spotlight Blogs
It is possible that a sliver of Sarkozy's margin may be coming from none other than the Big Apple itself! Close to one million French citizens reside outside of France, and those west of the European continent actually voted Saturday in places as diverse as St. Pierre and Miquelon (the Canadian islands left under French rule after the Seven Years' War), the French Caribbean and French consulates across the US. (Hmm…all that bitching about American cultural imperialism and there are Frenchies everywhere in this hemisphere! :>)
St. Pierre and Miquelonfr
It is also comforting to know that France is also afflicted with election nerds who dissect voting trends. According to one university study, sunshine and warmer temperatures increase turnout. (Who says Global Warming is all bad?) Moreover, they favor the left, while rain and cold benefit the right. (Naturellement!) On the flip side, elections that occur during school holidays depress turnout by left-inclined voters, who opt to go on vacation rather than vote.
The opinion polls still show a tight race. There are actually 12 candidates, but four are attracting the spotlight: rightwards-leaning Nicholas Sarkozy, the socialist Segolene Royal, the late blooming centrist candidacy of François Bayrou and National Front immigrant-basher Jean Marie le Pen.
The Fab 4: Le Pen, Sarkozy, Bayrou, RoyalDescriptive text hereMORE BELOW:
Based on polls taken April 19, Sarkozy leads with 27% on the first round, followed by Royal with just under 25%. (French polls have unique reliability problems caused by the French tradition of deliberately deceiving pollsters.) Should these numbers hold up in the actual vote, Sarkozy will face Royal in the second round and is expected to win there. But there are no certainties in elections.
Royal should have had the advantage after 12 years of Jacques Chirac's scandal-ridden conservative administration, but her candidacy has floundered on message and symbolism. Her nanny-state approach to economic policy is not convincing an electorate worried about the faltering French economy. Her proposal for quasi-amnesty for illegal immigrants with children in French schools has bombed. The whole socialist class-oriented paradigm seems out of touch with French electors who are concerned about national identity, crime and the challenges of globalization.
Sarkozy's brusque personality and inclination towards "Anglo-Saxon" free market policies leave many French uncomfortable, but they look at him as the most likely candidate to improve French economic performance and the most qualified one to reduce crime, a very important concern after the rioting and arson that have scarred the French landscape during the past two years.
However the currents of opinion shift on election day, we will have to wait for the polls to close. France has strict blackout rules on releasing polling data in the final runup to election day, and the enforcement mechanisms have teeth, whose scope reaches French websites. Raison d'état, you know! redstate.com |
