I think your point about our general security being weakened instead of strengthened by the invasion of Iraq is an important one. Not only was Saddam not a threat worth wasting lives to eliminate, but we have created more enemies and strengthened existing ones, according to our own Intelligence people.
I think the threat to the US from the Iraq situation is very difficult to assess at the moment. The Kurds will like be pro-US for a while. And if the Sunni-Shia descend into chaos in Iraq, it will take the US out of the eyesights of Islamic terrorists for a long while. Which Islamist is going to devote resources to blowing up the US embassy a few continents away in Australia when there is an enemy Muslim two blocks down the road? Also, once the US leaves, the situtation in Iraq becomes an internal Muslim on Muslim problem. The idea that any outside power caused the schism between Sunnis and Shias is ridiculous, and they know it. Then, once the Iraqis figure out themselves and achieve some stability, they are again a natural buffer between Iran and the rest of the ME. The Shias of Iraq may share the same blend of Islam as the Iranians, but any attempt by Iran to lead or dominate them will encounter fierce resistance from Shia Iraqi Arabs. They haven't just thrown off Saddam's cloke of control to fall under a Persian cloke. And even if the Iranians and Shia Iraqis do seriously unite as one force, the target is much more likely to be Sunni held Mecca (and all their lovely oil fields) than Atlanta, Georgia on the other side of the planet.
With the ME potentially descending into a reshaping chaos, the threat to the USA declines significantly. Somalia isn't much of a threat to the US despite it's chaotic state, the other countries in the ME would be similar if they can't control themselves.
Don't believe the War on Terror bugaboo the administration shoves down our throats. |
