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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 53.85-4.5%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Robohogs who wrote (23519)4/23/2007 11:48:29 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (2) of 52153
 
Someone thinks news is coming in next 4 weeks

I don't know of any publicly-disclosed basis for that view. Could be some sort of rumor from the FDA I suppose.

Merger seems very unlikely - Novartis is obvious candidate, and there are issues surrounding inside information (like communications received from the FDA) that make that seem very unlikely indeed.

There is still a fairly hefty implied volatility premium of the puts over the calls at some maturities, perhaps suggesting some sort of short squeeze.

All-in-all the implied volatility surface makes no sense to me here. Why the spike in May vols? Why is the put premium higher for longer-dated contracts?

Peter
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