More big storms expected
Weather researchers at NCSU predict 12 to 14 named storms, 8 or 9 hurricanes for '07
Frank Norton, Staff Writer
Expect more Atlantic hurricanes this year, say researchers at N.C. State University.
The same researchers last year predicted five to six hurricanes forming. Five actually did.
This year is different, said Dr. Lian Xie, the professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State who led the study.
"The key is warmer-than-average tropical waters in the Atlantic," Xie said, increasing chances more storms will hit land.
"It's the opposite of last year," when the same waters were slightly colder than average, Xie said.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The El Nino effect
In addition to warmer Atlantic waters, the recent end of the El Nino period of warm Pacific water has increased the likelihood of Atlantic storms forming -- El Nino tends to generate shear winds that actually break up the formation of Atlantic hurricanes.
As a result, Xie foresees 12 to 14 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin this year. The area includes the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
Of the named storms, eight to nine may become hurricanes, and four to five could become major storms -- Category 3 and up.
Unlike most studies, N.C. State's hurricane model breaks out three geographic regions: the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast and the Northeast.
"This gives people a little more detail about where the storms are likeliest to hit," Xie said.
The Gulf of Mexico is most likely to see storms this year, with two to three forming in the Gulf Basin.
Of those, one to two are likely to make landfall.
For the Southeast, Xie predicts one to three named storms and as many as two making landfall.
Xie's team evaluated data on the position and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes from the past 100 years. The team also evaluated weather patterns and sea surface temperatures, among other factors.
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