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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: michael97123 who wrote (228283)4/23/2007 2:20:47 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
While you have been watching reruns, the war has been lost on the home front and from what i can tell from watching its been lost in iraq as well. Next best thing is 3 states and Bagdad

No.. the war will be "lost" when Iraq is torn apart as a national entity and the region falls into outright conflict between Shi'a and Sunni. Because that's what's on the table here.

Think about it Michael.. We all know the majority of these Arab PG states were arbitrarily carved out of the Ottoman Empire. And if we permit Iraq to political devolve along ethnic and religious lines, it's going to unleash the same kind of sectarianism in every other country in the region.

I dare say that none of the countries bordering Iraq desire that as their own countries are heavily divided. Not even the Iranian hardliners want Iraq to divide. They want the whole ball of wax, especially now that the Sunni portion of Anbar province is suspected of being capable of nearly doubling Iraq's PREVIOUSLY known oil reserves.

But those new oil reserves will give the Sunnis in Iraq's Anbar province the same kind of economic power (and resources) they once commanded by dominating the Shi'a (but they'll still need the pipelines to move it to market). So this is one of the reasons, IMO, that we're seeing the Sunnis in Anbar start to oppose AQ. Their tribal leaders know that no investment money will flow to exploit those resources until they create security there. And now that they've discovered the golden goose, they need to prepare a proper nest for it to start laying those (black) golden eggs..

Hawk
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