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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising
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To: Iamarangerboy who wrote (10030)4/23/2007 8:13:54 PM
From: Robohogs  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
My thoughts on earnings:

1. An easy beat.
2. Most analysts are at flat QoQ Lunesta - should at least do that as scrips were flat to up slightly with a modest price increase at end of Q4 (will not stick but will firm the awful pricing from before) and less discounting (much bigger end of year thing). Could be de-stocking but I like the odds here.
3. Xop trends were modest up a few percent YoY with a strong price increase in between last year's Q1 and this year. Non-IMS channels supposedly very strong and getting stronger given the new govt stance on compounding which hits in June/July. Xop should be strong YoY into end of Q3 with typical seasonal weakness over next 2 quarters. DMERC decision key.
4. MDI weaker than expected in share but HFA replacing CFC ahead of expectations. Good for ST and bad for LT. Analysts will want them to address longer term implications.
5. Brovana suddenly looking much better give compounding stance. Expect very big push. May be too early to lift guidance.
6. Will have very heavy costs but less than expected to beat estimates.
7. Worries about generics not there by Street or analysts as vols on options are very flat at low levels and analyst comments are more on statins.

Jon
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