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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising
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To: Robohogs who wrote (10031)4/23/2007 9:42:57 PM
From: Robohogs  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
A few more earnings observations:

Lunesta scrips are running up 13.4% YTD vs. last year.
Share is at high end of last 2 months - 13.6% (low is 13.4% - very steady).
Neb growth is 2.3% YTD (roughly 2% for Q1 as Q2 is up 4.4% so far YoY).
Xop MDI averaged 47.6K during YTD (probably about 46K during Q1 given recent figures of 56K). Using $40 and 20% bulk up (assumes IMS captures just under 85% of market) yields $30 MM. With inventory build, I would estimate $35 MM. The number could come in at $30 MM though as price is a bit lower than $40. My best guess is $30-35 MM.
Lunesta: Scrips were up about 1-1.5% over Q4 and 13% over Q1. Pricing should have been much firmer. Wildcard is stocking. Taking the actuals reported and multiplying yields $151-156 MM of revenues. Now pricing has gotten quirky since Q1 of last year so that would bias numbers down (it yields the $156 MM although Q1 was understated for discounting and revenues were written back up a bit later in year). Also, $151 MM is biased down by Q4 pricing discounting. My best guess is $155 MM with possibility of $160 MM - these are demand numbers. With destocking, range is $148-160 MM.
Xop will be up 10% with other channels again driving growth. This would yield $155 MM.
Brovana stocking goes in at $5 MM and royalties of $10 MM.

That means I have $348-365 MM.

Jon
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