Hi Frank -
Ericsson's position on OFDM/4G has been longstanding ambivalence. They now have both feet on the same side of the fence.
I don't think there's any clarity at all on how things will evolve, or why. For the game to go one way or the other, some of the rules have to change.
There's no question that WiFi has taken an early lead, and that it can do the things its proponents claim. But I still think that the spectrum at 2.4 GHz is going to become a tricky place to work. Yes, there are advances being made, but would you stake a business proposition on them?
OTOH, WiMax has shortcomings, too. Spectrum. Handoffs. Power (battery) usage. WiBro seems to be perceived as a stopgap on the way to something better - but what?
M2M? I agree with Peter: why not WiFi? Especially if the usage isn't time-critical (ie., must be received when transmitted). OK, there might be an advantage on licensed spectrum, but it's not a show-stopper for WiFi.
Ditto backhaul.
I agree with your contention that WiMax will be insufficient for many corporate usage scenarios, but then, what do you propose? There are LOS alternatives.
Does anyone have a vision on how this will evolve? I don't. Advances in RF technology appear to have resulted in an array of competing alternatives, none of which is The Answer for everyone.
So, do we have to wait for competing RF technologies to do a BetaMax vs VHS-like battle? Probably. Will it take a long time, as new (and competing) technologies emerge? Probably.
Who knows? It's clear as mud to me.
Jim |
