I hate to join a mob, but I guess there's a time for everthing. I doubt there really is a CCC. It was a pipe dream. Weren't they suppose to ship in October 97? It seems they are still trying to choose a chip and an OS. It seems like just a drain on very scarce resources. You can't have a business without a customer. Where is CCC's customer.
If Corel was in the US, I think Cowpland would be investigated for insider trading and may end up in jail. And as a separate issue, Corel would be a very prime takeover candidate. I'm not sure how being in Canada changes this, if it does.
But assuming a free market, it seems very likely that someone out there is accumulating a lot of Corel stock at dirt cheap prices. If a few of those folks get together, they could take-over Corel (can you imagine any stockholders who wouldn't vote for that?). Even if Corel sales are only $200 mill US per year, they have three cash cows in WP, Ventura, and Draw (plus others). Just for the fun of it, if they had cut all their Advertizing ($92 mil) and R&D($66 mil) in FY96, they would have made $150 mill income before taxes. At P/E of 20, shares would be about $40 each.
So, one possible scenario goes:
1. Hostile takeover with a few big voting blocks and lots of support from most of the shareholders.
2. Change in top management.
3. Sell, or more likely, close down CCC.
4. Sell rights to develop WP suite on Java and close down most internal efforts.
5. Focus on installed base and on niche markets (legal, medical, etc.).
6. Updates to WP, DRAW, Ventura every 9-12 months.
7. Move WP8 suite to Windows 3.1 (still 50% of installations, and being ignored).
8. Run tight ship. Keep up the great products to keep loyal base happy. Make big bucks. Stock goes up.
Sounds crazy, but in spite of the horendous new, COSFF is up 1/8 with good volume (someone was buying this AM - I hope it wasn't Cowpland). |
