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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: MythMan who wrote (334318)4/26/2007 4:06:03 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
I hope not, and we get out of Iraq. The BK will start to
happen before shrub is out, probably later this year.
Stocks smell Fed cut, that will happen. It will be the final
straw that breaks the camel's back. That, and
China/Japan/Europe raising rates again. For now, gaming and
tooling will go on. Dollar is the Achilles heel of it.
1929 was different - we had 3% T-bond yield back then.
Now it will be 10% or more. All assets will crash, including
treasuries. Gold will rocket higher.

Right now lower dollar leads to
increased foreign buying of treasuries and agencies.
That happened in the past 4 years, but it will change soon.
Once this does change, BK will be next. They can't continue
this forever, because of interest payments to foreigners.

By the way, increased coupon passes could signal just
that - foreigners are not buying treasuries as much lately, so
the Fed has to buy them with printed money. They did pile
into agencies, though.
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