Re: "I have a very important question that everyone commenting on the Iraq situation should reflect on prior to writing or saying anything in public about it."
Really... your question is that important, eh?
OK....
"If we have lost the War On Terror / Iraq Theatre,"
Is that a HYPOTHETICAL question? ('Cause I don't believe that we have 'lost any wars' lately... The 'Iraq War, against S.H., was a win inside of three and one half weeks. The War against Taliban Afghanistan was a remarkable win for Rummie's concept of the utilization of local forces, with the command/control of American Air Power and Special Forces....)
On the other-hand the subsequent *occupations* of those places, and the respective 'nation building' efforts, have been at best a bit of a seriously mixed bag subsequent to those 'wars'.
And the 'War against al Qaeda' remains unfinished, and unresolved yet... with important tactical 'wins' and important tactical 'losses' both chalked-up thus far.
The 'W.O.T.' though, was always explained in context by the WH and it's proponents as a larger global and ideological struggle, the 'long war', described as much larger in scope then any single regional conflict.
If it is as described, I would have to answer that --- by definition then --- it too has not had enough time pass, or developments develop, to characterize *it* as a 'win' or a 'loss' yet. And so, I will not. (Incidentally: I remain, as always, extremely confident about the much greater odds for global strategic victory of 'Western' ideals such as pluralism, religious freedom and secular, democratic societies in this ideological contest with Authoritarian religious fundamentalism. I just believe that ultimate victory would come about a Hell of a lot faster if we chose more intelligent national policies....)
Re: "...who has won? Iraqi Shites? Iraqi Sunni? Syria? Russia? France? Saudi Arabia? Iran?"
Now you are on to a conflict ('Iraqi Civil War'... or 'Iraqi National War' & 'regional Sunni/Shia religious war' & 'Saudi / Iranian and assoc. regional Zones of Influence Contest', etc.) significantly different then the three previously mentioned....
(And, PS, you can take 'Russia' and 'France' off of your list above. They ain't significant players in this particular contest, which is inter-Islamic and regional and Persian/Arab/Kurd/Turkomen mostly in ethnic complexity.)
Now, to answer your question "who has won?" about this particular contest too, the answer is EASY: No one has won it yet, because it mostly hasn't even been fought yet. It's still in early innings, I believe. (It is possible the religious aspects of it could continue for a very long time --- as it, indeed, reflects an unresolved centuries old Islamic conflict --- or, as I personally believe, the vehicle of the Iraqi Civil War may actually accelerate the final resolution of this unresolved conflict within Islam... possibly accelerating the advent of the long-delayed 'Islamic Reformation'. Or not....)
The regional power-politics and the ethnic angles in this war, I believe, may be settled much more expeditiously then the religious ones, IMO. (Perhaps in something on the order of a decade or so....)
The sooner it gets to happening, of course, the sooner the issues will be resolved for the region (for example: a unitary Iraq, or a federal one? Iraq or two or three emergent independent States? Kurdistan to finally satisfy the Kurds long stymied irredentist desires, yea or nay? Trans-Jordan or a Saudi Sunni Arab homeland? Etc.)
"Further more which of those would you see as been the most beneficient to the Iraqi citizenry? If we have not lost it, but are losing it, who would you like us to declare the victor?"
That's just the thing, ain't it?
WE don't get to 'declare a winner'... unless we annex the place (God forbid...), it *ain't our country* (Even if Lawrence of Arabia and Churchill *did* draw up the boundaries for this 'artificial' country one afternoon, over a LOT of drinks, in an effort to come up with an internally divided colony that would be easy to rule. :-)
No, the locals, living in the place, will be the ones who's decisions about WHAT Iraq is to be, and 'who won', will become the historical reality in the fullness of time....
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(MEANWHILE though, as I pointed out here many times, this conflict stands to work for our national strategic long-term interests very well... and better still the faster we can get extricated from it, Peter.) |
