I expect there'll be more "great buys" available until they produce some "news" demonstrating that they can bring in more than $12/qtr.
I don't have any reason to believe they'll see those levels before Q3 based on anything I've seen. The company has little visibility. I really don't think management's forecasts are worth much and can understand why they stopped giving guidance.
The initial AMPY deal was signed in 2001 and we know it took 5 years to distribute the over 30M meters into the program. Then too, FRAM was adopted by the major Chinese AMR providers in 2002:
ramtron.com
I have to assume they've taken some chip deliveries, but nothing like one would expect for a market that size, in the midst of explosive building construction, and about to go on line(?) with the biggest hydroelectric system in the history of the planet. These 5 major providers are clearly not taking any where near the product volumes the ENEL program did.
Either China's suppliers are not installing the ESCO or Echelon type meters that include FRAM or someone else is supplying them. And if its the later then that someone is not making a dent in RMTR's royalty income. Whatever is happening in China appears to be happening everywhere else too.
Even if you assume the entire "Integrated Product" revenues for Q1 came from metering, that produces only $1.7M in revenue. If you assume that all meter related revenue in Q1 was 45% of the $10.7M in sales (we know it was 35% of sales for all of 2006 and was up in Q1) you only get revenues of $4.8M/Qtr worldwide for the meter business.
By comparison after the AMPY deal was signed in August 2001, total FRAM revenues for Q4 of 2001 had reached $3.1M.
By Q1 of 2002, total FRAM revenues were $4.6M.
By Q2 of 2002, total FRAM revenues were $7.7M.
By Q3 of 2002, total FRAM revenues were $9.1M.
By Q4 of 2002, total FRAM revenues were $7.0M.
By Q1 of 2003, total FRAM revenues were $6.8M.
By Q2 of 2003, total FRAM revenues were $7.9M.
By Q3 of 2003, total FRAM revenues were $4.6M.
By Q4 of 2003, total FRAM revenues were $7.8M.
I figure for Q1 of this year total FRAM revenues (10.7M less MCUs and non-FRAM ICs) were at least $9.0M with the "meter" related portion somewhere between 40% ($3.6M) and 45% ($4.05M). That's about the same level we averaged from ENEL in 2002. Looking at all FRAM revenue growth, including both core FRAM and AMPY products, it looks like $7.1M/Qtr for 2002 to $9.8M for 2006 and that assumes all 2006 product revenue was FRAM which it wasn't.
Clearly the money markets don't "see" the rest of the world as going to FRAM IP for AMR solutions for the bulk of their new meters like Italy did. Assuming that the supply of FRAM is not a problem, unless we get a spike to something closer to at least $6.0-7M/Qtr in meter related FRAM sales by Q4 at the latest I'll have to assume that our "niche" is shrinking.
It seems likely to me that the increase in sales development staff in Asia has something to do with all this:
Message 23427374
Let us hope it is "something wonderful."
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