I think that continued high penetration rates of wind power in the U.S. will be unsustainable in the mid-term (5-10 years out, significant slowdown?) based on three factors,
1) the idea that it cannot provide a base load or peak load
function because it is intermittent. Because of this along with it's generally unpredictable nature, it is seen as the lowest quality of power and therefore the least profitable. That is "common wisdom" and I have been generally operating with that notion, but:
I came across this article recently arguing that well-distributed wind with minor gas-fired backup can act as baseload. If this proves substantially true in the U.S. than my current view may be significantly off base. It argues that if turbines in one region are becalmed, probability says those in another will be able to take up the slack. Sounds good, but I think implementation will be a challenge, based on the layout of the existing power grid, availability of capital to build new lines into underserved windy areas, etc. I don't know if there is enough wind capacity with sufficient backup in any part of the U.S. to be considered base load yet. The existence of such a base load wind grid would improve wind power economics greatly to those involved as they would be able to sell their watts at a higher rate.
cana.net.au
Relatively inexpensive battery storage systems could alter that picture, such as the VRB storage system.
VRB Power lands big wind deal in Ireland
by Tyler on Wed 30 Aug 2006 07:52 PM EDT
Who said there's no such thing as large-scale battery storage?
Vancouver-based VRB Power has sold a 1.5 megawatt flow battery system to an Irish wind developer that wants to couple the storage technology with some of its wind turbines. Tapbury Management Ltd.'s 39-megawatt "Sorne" wind farm is being built in two phases, and initially the Irish company wants to use VRB's technology to complement Phase II (representing about 7 megawatts of the total farm).
VRB's system will provide 12 megawatt-hours of energy -- that is, 1.5 megawatts of output can be sustained for eight hours. If the system works well and Tapbury wants to apply the technology to the full farm, it has the option to expand the storage system to 50 megawatt-hours. The initial deal, however, is worth $6.3 million (U.S.) to VRB, which sees the sale as important for establishing a market in Ireland and the rest of Europe.
"It is the largest sale we have made to date and it provides validation of the potential for our storage systems to be coupled to wind farms in the large, growing wind markets in Ireland, Europe and North America as well as a number of other countries worldwide," said VRB chief executive Tim Hennessy...............
more here:
tyler.blogware.com
2) I think the second factor that will slow wind penetration in the U.S. is the limited availability of sites in areas where they are generally needed most, the upper midwest, and northeast. The rampant NIMBY factor is prevalent in both areas, and economic sites in these areas are largely limited to high visibility coastlines, hills and ridges.
There is lots of capacity in the west, for example the Dakotas, but need there is limited, and construction of new, high cost, high efficiency power lines over long distances is needed to deliver this power to needy areas. Could happen, but I suspect other factors will work against the economics of this, such as the continuing cost reductions and efficiency increases in solar cells.
3) Solar produced electricity efficiency just keeps movin on up.
 heliotronics.com
(see fig. 4)
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With FPL's access to capital, marketing and tech savvy, they will be able to leverage into the emerging solar generation market better than smaller players. Their size would also be advantageous in working towards wind grids that are diverse enough to deliver base load watts at base load prices. Of course they could also expand internationally and that would be very interesting.
Just my opinions based on present knowledge level, my ideas can and probably will change given new info. |
