Did she ever study extraction physics? Or even the Laws of Thermodynamics? She's a Rooskie; they believe in abiotic oil.
It's funny she wrote that in '73. Maybe she foresaw Prudhoe Bay,and thought that would push us up. My goodness, she wrote this 3 years after the US peaked. What prescience.
"Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."
M. King Hubbert
The late Dr. M. King Hubbert, geophysicist, is well known as a world authority on the estimation of energy resources and on the prediction of their patterns of discovery and depletion.
He was probably the best known geophysicist in the world to the general public because of his startling prediction, first made public in 1949, that the fossil fuel era would be of very short duration. "Energy from Fossil Fuels, Science" [scanned, 260 kb] [Printing aids] [February 4, 1949]
His prediction in 1956 that U.S.oil production would peak in about 1970 and decline thereafter was scoffed at then but his analysis has since proved to be remarkably accurate. See Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels by M. King Hubbert, Chief Consultant (General Geology), Exploration and Production Research Division, Shell Development Company, Publication Number 95, Houston, Texas, June 1956, Presented before the Spring Meeting of the Southern District, American Petroleum Institute, Plaza Hotel, San Antonio, Texas, March 7-8-9, 1956.
hubbertpeak.com
==============
Generally the only reliable way to identify the timing of any production peak, including the global peak, is in retrospect. United States oil production peaked in 1970. The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1965.[3] Some estimates made by Hubbert and others for the date of worldwide peak in oil production based on continued 2% growth in petroleum consumption that was reduced and at times reversed for years by energy efficiency and conservation efforts, no longer reflect the projection assumption and are now as much as 17 years in the past.
[edit] Reliability of predictions
US oil production (crude oil only) and Hubbert high estimate.
[edit] US Production Peak
Hubbert, in his 1956 paper,[1] made two predictions for the US conventional oil production (crude oil + condensate):
a low estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equals to 6%, an ultimate resource equals to 150 Giga-barrels (Gb) and a peak in 1965.
a high estimate: a logistic curve with a logistic growth rate equals to 6% and ultimate resource equals to 200 Giga-barrels and a peak in 1970.
Forty years later, the high estimate has been proven to be remarkably accurate in terms of production level and cumulative production. In 2005, the US production was 1.55 Gb with a cumulative production of 176.4 Gb (crude oil + condensate) and the Hubbert model is predicting 1.17 Gb (24% lower) and 178.2 Gb respectively.
en.wikipedia.org |
