see pp. 16 ff. and also listen to today's FPL conference call in conjunction with these slides.
did those, attention drifted during my call listen, so probably missed some key stuff.
My takeaway is that your estimates are too conservative. Their's are very conservative as well.
Not sure if you are referring to the overall trend of wind energy penetration or just FPL's outlook. Since you are referring to FPL news I assume the latter. I didn't make much in the way of a substantive guess: 8-12% annualized return over the next few years. FPL Group's estimated EPS growth for 2008 is 7.5%. Add in a 2.5% divy and that gives 10% pre tax.
They project a hypothetical, conservative yearly wind addition of 750 MW. That's good, but it occurs within the larger FPL Group structure, so I don't think my 8-12% outlook is going to be much of an undershoot if any. They indicated that they are presently against separating out wind or FPL Energy into another company.
The lead dude on the call was asked when they would start running out of good sites, the question went something like "when do you think you will start running out of good sites, is it 2 years or decades"
Lead dude reply was "something in between", ha ha! Good answer. So we are left hanging. I said 5-10 years out, that is "in between", but it is just a guess. Could very well be wrong, I am no expert.
I didn't see anything in the slides or take anything from the call that would substantively change my outlook, what specifically did you see that led you to a different conclusion? What did I miss?
thanks for the prompt, interesting company and discussion. |
