Good catch. Since I haven't yet factored the numbers into my financial model (only looking at Q3 right now), I couldn't pull the number from there so easily - forgot to multiply the number I posted (quarterly) by 4 to get an annual number.
Anyway... use $5 then and you still get a huge number. AAPL will provide much more than RIMM provides in time, and I think Jobs has sold AT&T on the vision. The iPhone could be very data intensive and hence profitable for AT&T as well, all depends on the pricing plans - I've heard that they'll try and get people into unlimited data plans. The iPhone could re-invent cell-based web surfing - it's a joke on current phones but the demo for the full browser looks promising - again, more data traffic.
The other reason I use $7 is that Shawn Wu - one of 2 analysts that have a clue about AAPL, is estimating 10%, and at a ballpark voice/data plan of $70 you get $7. I do think AT&T is willing to pay that amount because of the number of customers they're about to get - and very loyal (AAPL) customers at that. I think AAPL will then, in exchange, share related revenue from the iPhone related iTunes revenue (ringtones, answer tones, etc.) - seems fair and probably a reciprocal 10% if Shawn Wu is correct. I don't think RIMM has anything to offer in that regard.
Part of building a financial model for a company involves some guessing, but you get the point that this will be a significant revenue/cash/profit stream for AAPL. |
