I'm not 'railing' against them- I'm just having some fun.
I'm a crusty old bastard who's traded PM's- especially silver for 30+ years. I've seen the exact same speculative behavior in every single commodity and stock cycle in my lifetime.
Its more the gold bug newsletter writers and pundits found on Kitco, Gold-Eagle and that appear on CNBC that I'm railing against. It never changes. They all broadly cover their ass buy saying buy the dips and sell the tops, but yet none of them (99% for sure) have never issued a SELL, or a mid-cyle TOP call that I've seen. And NEVER have they ever ordered their minions to go SHORT and MAKE MONEY on the pullbacks.
When you think about it, shouldn't us permabulls (yes, I am one- but, a recovering one (vbg)- be the ones who know best when its time to short? Shouldn't we be the ones who hand 'the bag' to the johnny-come-lately's , or the hedge funds that come in late and drive prices into those parabolic tops?
I think so.
I've finally learned to short. I've finally learned to buy puts for insurance and for profit- when things get giddy. And I've finally, for the first time in 30 years- got into synch with trading out front of the market, instead of getting continually whipsawed by it. And I've got one persosn to thank for that- as it finally sank in late last fall.
Controlling greed and the fear of 'missing out' on the 'big one' isn't an easy thing to do. But, once you learn to control it- your trading will become one hell of a lot more profitable- and stress free!
I'm like a kid in a candy store. I'm just waiting for Silver to pull back into the $12's so I can reload a bit. I'll pocket the cash from the puts and shorts and reload cheaper.
I got burned bad last April-May on the top in Silver by following Jim Willie- who also called for yet another 'big breakout' for Silver here- as it tanks (he he). Willie has become the sell signal for Silver!
Anyway, I am now cheering when Silver and gold sell off, because I will ALWAYS be selling the giddy run ups, and buying the despondant pullbacks. I am HAPPY that Silver is retreating here because I WANT to buy lower than I sold and I want to cash in those very, very profitable puts and shorts.
I do hope Slider gives us his- 'one answer' this Sunday. I think I found the answer by going back throught the old posts here on this thread. Last year some permabulls were saying gold was going to the moon because the Central Banks did not sell their full allotment of gold- and that this meant that they were no longer sellers of gold. And the newsletter writers were all telling us that China and Russian central banks were dumping dollars and gobbling up all the gold they could get. But- now today, we finally read that Central Banks have been dumping gold 'very efficiently' into each run up in gold and capping & smothering each breakout rally in gold.
Slider- was the only one I read who said that the central banks having not sold their full allotment- was bearish, not bullish; because it meant they had more ammo left to cap it when they needed to.
Slider was the first one who posted that Goldman would be a major player in capping the commodity rally last May and this chart that Akfoobar posted shows how perfectly correct that call was. I bet most permabulls see this as bullish, because Goldman has covered their shorts. Instead, I see it as bearish, because now they can reload and cap gold again.
Goldman had been the main comodity cheerleader- especially in Oil. But, that all changed when it became clear that Paulson was going to be the new Treasury Secretary. Goldman pulled the plug on both Mother Rock and Amaranth and look at this chart of Goldman vs. Gold stocks-
Goldman is nothing more than a hedge fund branch office of the Fed- that now gets to trade and make obscene profits on inside information. That's my personal opinion.
Remember when Slider said Buffet was right- and that gold and silver had become a speculative bubble? You all spewed on him and Buffet. Well- who's laughing now after a year of DEAD MONEY?
I'm an old dog who's learned some new tricks. I'm sleeping very well and actually enjoying these sell offs, instead of sweating them and getting stopped out.
Now if Silver can just dip back into the $12's- I can reload again. And you can bt your ass I'm going to cheerlead its sell off. After all- if you REALLY are buying the dips and selling the rallys- wouldn't all of you- be doing the same thing- instead of what you're doing?
Ron |
