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Biotech / Medical : Immunomedics (IMMU)
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To: Josh C. Pleasure, M.D. who wrote (18)8/21/1996 11:23:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed   of 371
 
Josh: Thanks for a well done job. The main question is how do we put a value on this plethora of products. Different products have vastly different potentials. The timing is also quite difficult. The immediate product is the CEA-scan which I expect to have revenues within two quarters. An estimate could be calculated from the sales of Oncoscint. Anyone has an estimate?

The largest potential over the next three years is probably Leukoscan since it addresses infections and iflamations, pathologies that are far more prevalent than each specific cancer. There are more than 500,000 appendicitis procedures per year. If we assume that only 20% of these will use Leukoscan screening (and it should go much higher to eliminate appendicitis as a potential cause in other lower abdomen pathologies ), or 100,000 tests and IMMU gets $100 to the bottom line (about 15% of the average test selling price)we get 30 cents to the bottom line just from this application. With international sales this should be at least double. In my book, the current value of IMMU does not even fully reflect this single application of the myriad of additional products IMMU has in the pipeline. Once they start and have revenues, it should join the major biotechs with $billion type valuation, or four times its current value. This will take patience and time, but we will get there (with, unfortunately more trips up and down to the mid teens).

Thanks again for the excellent job, I still need some time to digest all the information and see what it means.

Zeev
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