Thanks very much for the compliment, but I am especially proud of my posting on August 31st when I said in response to a question for an opinion on Agouron (Agouron was in the 45 area) that it had possibly 4 to 5 points on the downside and will be 60 to 70 over the next 12 months. I still believe this strongly, and next week should be a great one for us.
On that same post, I stated that the secondary bios were one of the cheapest groups in the market, and mentioned four companes:
SQNA (approx. 11-1/2; went to 17; and closed today at 13-1/8)
PCYC (approx. 17-1/2; went to 29; and closed today at 27-1/2)
MLNM (approx. 13-1/2; went to 21; and closed today at 19)
MCDE (approx. 13-1/2; went to 14; and closed today at 12-1/2)
Not bad, if I say so myself.
As to Agouron, today I listened to two conference calls; one by Paine Webber and the other by Lehman Brothers. Paine Webber had Dr. Calvin Cohen who teaches at the Harvard Medical School, and who has a private practice of approximately 200 patients, and consults a clinic that has approximately 1,000 patients. I just wish you all could have heard him discuss all the issues that caused the weakness in Viracept. The bottom line was we have the PI of choice, since it is as powerful, if not more so, than the others. It is the easiest to take (compliance), which was mentioned over and over again as being of critical importance, and had the least adverse side effect profile. 10% to 20% moderate diahrea, easily controllable by over-the-counter medications. Although Dr. Cohen did not specifically endorse Viracept by name as his PI of choice, anyone who heard the call had no doubts on this issue.
At the Lehman conference, Dr. Joe Gates, who has a private practice in Houston, TX, which treats 1,500 to 1,800 patients and sees 30 to 40 patients daily, stated that protease inhibitors will be the backbone of treatment of the virus into the foreseeable future. When asked what is his recommendation to new patients, all things being equal he advises aggressive triple-therapy with 2 RTI's plus 1 protease inhibitor, and he stated categorically that Viracept was his drug of choice because of its side-effect profile and ease of use.
Both clinitians also stated that, at the Hamburg conference next week, Agouron will be presenting data on two-time-daily dosage of Viracept which they hear will be favorable.
In summary, as I said the other day, Agouron came down dramatically for the wrong reasons and, when the earnings are announced next week, I believe the shorts will need something stronger than Valdium.
Again, thanks for the compliment. Will not always make good calls; the market has a way of humbling us all.
Cheers!
PS - As far as Vertex PI being competition for Agouron, I don't think so folks. Some analysts are better than others, and obviously the Salomon Brothers analyst is not one of the better ones, if they were correctly quoted on Vertex. People will not switch from one drug to another unless there is a compelling difference. Since we have not seen any hard facts on this drug, it is difficult to be conclusive but a consensus is building that it is lucky if it turns out to be as good as Viracept. |
