medsunman. I'm still checking out ERGO, but a couple of observations might address a few of your questions. I looked at ERGO's intraday chart, and the move up was very sharp and on virtually no volume. I look at sharp moves in either direction on low volume as suspicious. It's easier to move AGRO's price in either direction because average daily volume is less than 30,000 while LGND's is 10 times that.
Lately, small Biotechs have had sharp moves up. They were highlighted in yesterday's IBD summary of the NASDAQ. When the sector moves, it frequently does so in shifts and yesterday (and maybe today) it was the smaller Biotech's turn. LGND's market cap is over $1/2 Billion now and it is slated for products next year and profitability the year after, so it is moving into the midsize Biotech classification (or Emerging Elite as Jim McCamant called them a couple of years ago).
ERGO's relatively small market cap allows for big moves on less news or trades, although in this case, the trades were virtually invisible when the chart went verticle.
I really know nothing about the upcoming ERGO deal with regard to size or partner.
LGND is focusing on rexinoids, and to my knowledge, its only competition is its partner, AGN. Rexinoids are natural partners of TZDs which have proven abilities in the treatment of type II diabetes. It is likely that they will also have prevention applications and will capture a rather large share of the oral treatment market for type II. I see LGND's rexinoids as a natural way to expand (double) that market, especially when developed and marketed by a major diabetes player (JNJ or LLY).
I expect the LGND deal to be announced in a matter of days. |
