Ian,
RE: "Cymer is planning on after warranty sales of spare parts, maintenance and upgrades to eventually amount to 1/3 of annual sales."
On the CYMI thread, I derived the installed base from the Merrill Lynch DUV sales projections. Even with the modest ML 5 year sales projections, the installed base was
317, 846, 1396, 2060, 2932.
The original five year EPS projection (without the 1/3 additional revenue) was
$1.10, $1.28, $1.20, $1.79, $2.14.
If "eventually" is five years out and the same 15% profit margin is applied to the additional 1/3 of total sales(as was applied to the original, now, 2/3 new sales), the new EPS numbers are:
$1.22, $1.59, $1.71, $2.54, $3.21.
I hope you will see fit to comment on my numbers and assumptions. Also, this analysis assumes 100% market share. What is your view on the numbers that may be lost to competition as compared to additional numbers which may be picked up from other sources (i.e. UTEK's P-GILD)?
Cary |
