Britain After Blair
Who is Gordon Brown?
Thursday, May 10, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDT
Today, Tony Blair is expected to announce he will step down as Prime Minister on July 1. After more than 10 years at 10 Downing Street, he will leave behind a Britain that has bolstered its standing in Europe, solidified its role as one of America's closest allies and built London into a global financial hub. His Labour successor will be hard-pressed to do as well.
The tendency of postwar British governments has been to unravel the policies of their predecessors. Tony Blair broke with that tradition. He endorsed most of the economic reforms implemented by the Conservatives from 1979 to 1997, even proclaiming himself an heir to the Thatcher legacy. It is a measure of Mr. Blair's success that the current Tory leader, David Cameron, feels compelled to distance himself from Lady Thatcher to differentiate himself from New Labour.
Never before had Labour won three straight general elections, yet many on the British left have never been comfortable with Mr. Blair's realignment of their party. For some, his moves toward the center were a betrayal of principles. His opponents in the party and British media have tried to reassure themselves by attributing recent election defeats to the unpopular Iraq war. That might soothe their consciences. But last week's poor showing in local contests--four years after the Iraq invasion and with a Labour succession in sight--could be read more as an indictment of the party's future prospects than of its past.
In any case, we think history will judge Mr. Blair favorably on foreign policy, including Iraq. Churchill was also felled by popular ingratitude for his difficult decisions. Few seem to recall Mr. Blair's pivotal role in stopping Slobodan Milosevic's rape of the Balkans, when the rest of Europe was wringing its hands and America was still reluctant to intervene. His finest moments have come since September 11. The Prime Minister has been an eloquent and farsighted proponent of resisting radical Islam, even as much of the Free World prefers not to face up to the threat. He is, at present, the last conviction politician in Europe.
Now he is being followed by a man whose convictions remain a mystery. After a decade at Treasury, Gordon Brown will take office between general elections and most likely without facing a rival for Labour Party leadership. Yet with one foot in the door of 10 Downing for months, he has failed to explain how he would deal with foreign policy as well as such domestic issues as rising crime and Islamic extremism, immigration, health and other failing public services.
Yes, there have been press leaks. The Independent reported Tuesday that Mr. Brown plans to distinguish himself from Mr. Blair by "engaging" with Iran. But isn't that what Britain, as part of the so-far impotent EU-3, has been trying for some time? Consider how little we know about Mr. Brown's noneconomic policies compared to those of Nicolas Sarkozy, who had to argue his ideas before an engaged public to win the French presidency.
On economics at least, Chancellor Brown does have a clear record, much of it good. His early move to make the Bank of England independent and focused on inflation is a New Labour triumph. The economy has been a star in Europe, with steady growth. Yet rapidly rising public spending, fueled by increases on just about every tax but the top income rate, means the state is consuming ever-more private resources. In late March, the Treasury released long-sought documents showing that Mr. Brown raised taxes on pension plans in 1997 despite ample warning that it would leave a huge funding hole. This "pensions raid" has left an estimated £32 billion shortfall in private retirement plans, damaging Mr. Brown's image as an economic steward.
A strong Britain is vital to both Europe and America. As much as Continentals don't like to hear it, the British economy is a model for the European Union. Britain's openness has made it a winner from globalization, and along with that comes a responsibility to continue its leadership. Whether it is making the case for freer trade or keeping eurocrats focused on economic reforms rather than political projects like the failed constitution, the EU is better when the U.K. keeps a hand on the steering wheel.
London will also remain Washington's most trusted interlocutor with the Old World. For all the anti-Americanism in the British press, Britain is still spiritually closer to the U.S. than Angela Merkel's Germany or Mr. Sarkozy's France. The popular branding in Britain of Mr. Blair as President Bush's "poodle" willfully misrepresents the bipartisan esteem for the special relationship in Washington.
Thanks to Gordon Brown's reticence, no one knows how well he'll meet this challenge. He did have an excellent instructor for the past 10 years, assuming Mr. Brown was paying attention.
opinionjournal.com |
