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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: greenboy who wrote (4460)	10/3/1997 10:35:00 PM
From: Edward A. Fitzpatrick III	of 25960

Greenboy: watch your machine on Monday am. As far as the p/e goes, I think estimates are low. My MS report on Aug 19 states that they base 98 revenues on 560 units, but they go on to say that they feel confident that 700 units is do-able. Huh? There are just so many variables and unknowns at this point, that one just has to look at the numbers that are already in and do their own guesswork on the future quarters. CYMI has been growing revenues by 35% - 40% sequentially (qtr to qtr) for the past 4 qtrs. 2Q earnings were .48 per share(pre-split), yet the Aug19 report estimates 3Q97, 4Q87 and 1Q98 to come in at LESS than .48 for each of those quarters. I graphed out the rate of growth in revenues today and estimated a continued 35% sequential clip. I applied 10% and 15% to come up with a high/low estimate for net income as a percentage of revenues. CYMI has averaged about 12.5%-13%. On the low end, I came up with 1.88(pre-split) for 97. As I said, it is just a guess, but it keeps me busy at lunchtime. Maybe if I'm right, I can get a job at MS making lame guesses for gazzillions. Ed

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