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Gold/Mining/Energy : VLO: Valero Energy Corp.
VLO 177.51-1.9%3:59 PM EST
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To: carranza2 who wrote (171)5/11/2007 1:03:03 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön   of 299
 
i would not have had a clue on Mercury. that stuff was before my time.

yes, greed is dangerous, but it is not simple to know when to sell. look at VLO: they are absolutely banking right now. consensus numbers will be crushed to a pulp at this rate. the stock is up over 45% from the Jan/Feb period, but with margins where they are now the stock is actually much cheaper on a run-rate basis.

but just because it's cheaper on certain measures doesn't mean it's less risky. if the margins collapse the stock will get whacked. but i still find it hard to be totally out. i'm in at a half position here, along with about a half position in COS and some high dividend payers. total equity exposure of a little over 40%, which is on the low side for me.

i was in on all the QCOM madness back in 99. 100% QCOM calls most of that year. Walt Piecyk really capped it off for us. what a great, ridiculous run that stock was. now, all these years later and it's still 55% off its all-time high of Jan 3, 200 (split-adjusted 100). still, that's a much better performance than many tech "stalwarts" like Cisco, which are still more than 2/3's off their highs.

i totally changed strategies after QCOM. i went back to value investing.
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