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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Dogbert who wrote (1615)10/3/1997 11:43:00 PM
From: Investor2   of 42834
 
Thank you ever so much for the excellent post!

RE: " before the 1987 crash, for several years, it was uncanny how accurately he [Georgia Bear] could call short term swings in the market. ... Then, like so many before him, something happened and his system stopped working."

How can someone be so right in his calls for a while (as the Georgia Bear was), and then have all of his calls turn to garbage?? The stock market changes. Times change. People change. Life is change. What has worked in the past will not always work in the future. Does the average investor today really understand the meaning of "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" when they read that statement in their mutual fund prospectus?

RE: " But eventually all these systems fail as the 'style' of short term movements in the market changes over time. Systems that work perfectly one year may fail dismally two years later."

It's amazing how accurately Bob Brinker calls swings in the market. Since I have been listening (1992?), I don't think that he has ever missed with his "Gift Horse Buying Opportunities." How long can it last??

RE: " We will be celebrating the Dow being >10,000. Fall 1997 will be one of the greatest blast offs we've ever seen."

Yes, the bulls are starting to get carried away. I like Bob's term: the "New Age Thinkers." These are the people who think that the rules have changed. Twenty-five percent annual gains are the norm. Why not take a 10% mortgage out on the house, when I can make more than twice that in the stock market?

But I don't think the bull is over yet. There are still a substantial percentage who are cautious.

Thanks for your great post,

I2
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