John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (7836)	5/13/2007 10:02:55 AM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (2) of 33421

Re : "Why do I think oil could ever see $10 a barrel?" -- the short answer is ........................ Every (logical) point you brought up ... was undoubtedly also true before the other times (post 1979 - 1980) when the price of oil unexpectedly fell to around $10 a barrel. Re : "The dollar has lost 1/4 of its value" -- you do know that the U.S. Dollar Index is at the same level it was at around the time of the Carter administration ? (80.00 - 82.00 or so) (I am also aware the Dallas Federal Reserve branch released a study a few years back explaining how the weightings in the U.S. Dollar Index aren't exactly "right" for a good, representative index now.) I do NOT agree with the general "theme" of "of course everyone knows that commodities prices (in dollar denominated terms) are going up." THEY ARE NOT. I have been actively involved in trading commodity futures for my own account since 1978. Get some long-term price charts. Many, many commodities are down HUGE from 25 or 35 years ago. Jon.

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