If you were contrarian what would you think?
In a market where there were no restrictions on international currency transfers, I'd certainly be looking to try and find a hedge, or just sell and buy puts (going short would be too risky until the chart breaks).
I think we all know it's going to eventually end badly for the Chinese markets, but the question is just how euphoric it is going to get beforehand, given the obvious ability for the Chinese government to put in "the fix".
If it can stabilize above 4,000 (Shanghai), then 5,000 is the next target, and I would suspect that, like the Nasdaq, that would prove a major psychological hurdle and a good place to go short. (Can we short the Shanghai exchange via an ETF using Puts?)
But then, Chinese psychology might be far different.
The number 4 seems to represent a superstition in Chinese, representing "death". I wonder how much impact this might have with their market at 4,000?
en.wikipedia.org
But certainly 13 and 14 are numbers to beware of. I've read that many buildings in Asia allegedly do not have 13 or 14th floors, due to the perception they are unlucky.
Hawk |
