Sorry for taking so long to respond to this, Buddy. I've been busy, and didn't want to give your post a short or dismissive reply.
".. the first 'Gulf War' (the decade long Iran/Iraq War... extremely bloody and violent, with possibly in excess of one and half million people killed), DID NOT SEE noteworthy targeting of either side's oil production.
In fact --- as I believe I mentioned --- BOTH SIDES were SO PRESSED FOR FINANCING to keep their war effort up that they PUMPED FULL OUT... and that ushered in a decade or so of ROCK BOTTOM oil costs to the West, and a big economic boom for us."
Two axioms come to mind: a)those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it, and b)nations always tend to prepare to fight their last war.
I'll quickly acknowledge that the Iran-Iraq war was bloody and stupid war, with little strategic thought. It was clear that Sadaam was interested mostly in his own self-aggrandizement. I think that he was much less interested in defeating or occupying Iran than in simply capturing the oilfields. This was made even more clear when he invaded Kuwait. To him, it was all about the money and power. Similarly, Iran had no cohesive military, and lacked the ability to make any effective strikes against Baghdad, much less the oil production facilities.
I very much doubt the same will be true if the US precipitously abandons Iraq, and Iran invades. Instead of being a war for greed and booty, it will be an ideological/religious war. If Iran attempts to capture Iraq's oil fields, the Saudis will be FORCED to get involved. As very well may Turkey, in the Kurdish north. Since oil will be funding the conflict, even a stupid strategic planner will see the obvious need to take out an opponent's source of funding, the oil production and delivery facilities. Sadaam didn't want to destroy the oil fields he coveted, and Iran didn't have the ability to attack Iraq's oil. Today however, all the likely participants in such a war would have both the means and the motivation to hit their opponent's oil.
Worse, at least to my way of thinking, would be that all the participants would be tempted, if not eager, to strike Israel for propaganda advantages. And all participants have the capabilities to do so.
"So, the sooner they get about the business of fighting a religiously-tinged 'inter-Islamic' civil war, and contesting all the myriad of unsettled regional land and ethnic issues that are overhead, the sooner the radicals will be tossed upon the trash heaps of history, and progress can resume."
As you said, such a sorting out of religious issues don't happen quickly. If it were, as I mentioned in a previous post, simply a matter of putting a box around the region so only oil could come out, and nothing could go in, I'd tend to agree with you about letting them work it out like kids in a sandbox. But that isn't possible. Even a relatively minor disruption of the flow of oil and in oil prices has a huge, disproportionate effect on the rest of the world.
So long as a significant number of muslims have their focus on a world wide caliphate, the conflict will spread. Economic survival will demand other, seemingly disassociated, nations and groups get involved. Then throw in the passion and irrationality of religion, and the results will be impossible to predict.
"All that is conditioned upon us 'NEEDING' to import their oil --- which wasn't true even then, and is less so now. (Most Middle Eastern oil goes to EUROPE & CHINA & JAPAN, not to the US.) Our largest foreign sources are Canada, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. In fact, when heavy/sour oil and or bitumen reserves are counted in the 'reserve totals', Venezuela has greater reserves then Saudi Arabia... and Canada greater still then [sic] that."
Arrgghh!! So, you think that US imports of oil won't be impacted by a decrease of Mideast oil? Mexico is probably past "peak" and Canada's reserves aren't necessarily liquid oil. Even IF the US were to remain as the "priority customer" for those exporters (which isn't likely), it would be at unbearably high prices.
I'll leave it to you to figure out the ramifications of the US invading Venezuela. I can't even wrap my mind around the Middle East. <G> |
