Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (65580)	5/16/2007 8:39:24 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) of 116555

I lived through "Peak Oil" in 1978 to 1983 while working for Chevron. It makes me skeptical of the current "Peak Oil" scenario. Oil prices are up because of the Iraq War. The current Peak Oil story is bogus. I don't believe in Peak Oil in any year, as imagined by most. There are too many oil alternatives, even if oil production is peaking. I worked in Chevron's wonderful New Ventures Group before I left. Geothermal is terrific for power and heat, even widely distributed low-temperature geothermal with heat pumps. Wind power works great in more locales than you might imagine and nuclear systems which inherently produce little radioactive waste by design will be widely used. Solar needs a breakthrough to be economic in most situations. Heavy oils, tars, and coal are great for producing gasoline. There's a lot of Shale Oil but the economics are something you'd wish on your enemy. Shale oil creates its own problems, more than you could imagine as you scale up. Crude oil specifically is just one of many possible raw materials integrated oil firms can use. .

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