SMTC followers,
1/98 is fast approaching, hence investors will begin to weight this years results less and next years estimates more in valuing the stock.
When I bought the stock at $43, not very long ago, I was most impressed with Semtech's past performance, including the present year.
However, the estimates for next year are only $2.24, up 22.4% over this year's $1.83. I realize that this only reflects two guy's opinions; and I for one think that any "one" analyst's prediction is worth zilch. Hence I don't put too much stock in this estimate. This raises at least two issues:
1. What is our best estimate for next FY? If it's truly $2.24, with 22% growth, then fair value next year, I think, would be around $50, not good considering that's south of where we are now. I apologize if someone has already given predictions recently. If so, could you refer to the particular posts I should read?
2. If the $2.24 is too low, when can we expect "the" earnings estimates to be revised upwards? Even if it's too low, it is what it is. Many investors think these guys actually have a crystal ball. Hence if the estimates stand for some time, it could, probably will, begin to hurt the stock performance.
Thanks for any feedback you all can provide.
Stu Bishop |
