Richard,
Thanks for the info. - but I disagree with it in part.
(a) The drug is CHEAP not expensive. Thats not my viewpoint,
but was cited in the IBD article.
Note:At the time no official price was available so the
author of the article was guessing.
(b) The current price (stock) - I think - is not reflective of ANY SALES. Just the FDA approval and ....
It reflects the cash payments AHP has made and additional
payments AHP,Bayer and IB must make with respect to their
license agreement with BIOX.
BIOX could easily earn eps of $2.00/sh this year with
NO SALES. But they must fulfill their duties to AHP,
Bayer and IB(France).
2.00 eps X 20PE = $40.00 share
(c) The article was a lot more confident about the product than
I am. The product has been in Canada and Sweden for 3 years
now. I do not believe sales related to these countries indicate
any type of surge in its usage.
On a more positive note, is was the usage in these countries
that was the foundation for the FDA approval. So, obviously
the drug is helping some users.
Please recall - and it is never discussed for some reason -
at the Advisory meeting there were some very strong
statements made - to the effect - that the drug did not
work well if the patient was taking steriods.
For reasons not clear to me, the final FDA approval did
not put any limits on Synvisc usage, but the fact that
it came up in the advisory implies to me that there must
be some validity to it. I mean, one of those doctors
was virtually screaming about this fact.
disclosure:I am long several thousand shares and have been for a
couple of years.
Lastly, I still think, at some point, Bayer is going to enter
this market by either a deal with ANIK (USA market) or
BIOX (China market). I think this because Bayer already has
$8.0 mil deal with BIOX in the Asian market (excluding China).
And this deal, was for very small markets.
Regards,
John McCarthy
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