The Brain Drain At The Top
CAPTAIN ED
The Taliban's offensive operations have ground to a halt due to a lack of mid-level commanders, and the loss of their highest-ranking military general has their troops despondent, the Telegraph reports. They had planned for a big push this spring to reverse their fortunes against the NATO coalition, but instead they have been set back on their heels with not much hope for future of their fight:
"The Taliban's much-vaunted spring offensive has stalled apparently due to lack of organisation after dozens of middle-ranking commanders were killed by British troops in the past year, according to military sources.
The death last week of the key Taliban leader Mullah Dadullah at the hands of American special forces has harmed the Taliban's morale to the point that local commanders are having to tell their troops to "remain professional" despite the loss. ...
A spring offensive was ordered by the Taliban leadership based in Quetta, Pakistan, and was meant to be launched in late March.
But a lack of mid-level commanders has meant that there has been little co-ordination to bring about the offensive.
"They are getting strategic guidance from Quetta but this is not translating on the ground," a military source said."
Even the most successful of the Taliban contingents has its share of problems. In Helmand, where the American commander of the NATO forces had to force a tactical change to hot pursuit, the Taliban have an "irreconcilable" force of about 1,000 -- but they include a significant number of outsiders and part-timers. NATO forces in that area have stopped the practice of allowing cease-fires with Taliban elements, which allowed the "irreconcilables" to garner their strength, and they now have the same problems as the rest of the Taliban.
The failure of the spring offensive will probably prove fatal to the aspirations of Mullah Omar to seize power. He has lost three of his four top lieutenants in the past five years since his expulsion, and he has not even come close to winning. Without Mullah Dadullah and field commanders like Mullah Najibullah, Omar has little skill left in the field and fewer Afghans fighting for his cause. The fact that his hopes now hinge on a force made up largely of foreign fighters and part-timers in Helmand shows that his movement has dissipated.
They're giving it one more try this summer, but if the NATO forces continue with their new, aggressive tactics, the Taliban and Omar will face a very long winter. At some point, and it appears almost at hand, his men will either abandon him or betray him as they finally figure out that the war is over, and they lost it -- badly.
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