Lucius,
re:If not, the PC will be reduced to a commodity product within 3 or 4 years, and Intel will just be one of the pack subsisting on heavy competition and low profit margins.
Andy said recently Intel's strategy will be to customize chips based on their specific application. For example, one chip for Web servers, one chip for network servers, one chip for graphic workstations, one chip for laptops, one chip for consumer electronics, etc. Of course, there are risks with this strategy, for example, loss of economies of scale, but the upside is differentiation, which often comes with price premiums. Therefore, I doubt that Intel will ever lose its technology leadership that results in the CPU becoming a commodity across the board. The CPU contributes most to the "functionality" of the computer and therefore the easiest part to differentiate. I think in 5-years time, AMD/Cyrix wont be considered the main competitors to Intel. You'll have Competitor A in product segment A, Competitor B in product segment B, etc. There wont be 1 or 2 competirors but several smaller competitors along different chip lines.
joey |
