Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 177.32

+1.2%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2616)	10/4/1997 5:47:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 10921

Ian, RE: your "rambling" We do our analysis with the information at hand and then apply a confidence measure. The industry roadmap you described is relevant to CYMI through the intermediary DUV steppers shipped. I like the ML numbers because they were not produced as part of a CYMI analysis. I would be pleased if you decided to adjust them and gave your reasons. Anyway, you have suggested(?) that I adjust my numbers for 18% after tax margins. The EPS for years ending 3/98 through 3/02 with 15% margins, 100% market share, and a ramp to 1/3 support revenue by 3/02 are: $1.22, $1.59, $1.71, $2.54, $3.21. With 18% margins the EPS numbers are: $1.46, $1.91, $2.05, $3.05, $3.85. These numbers look a lot better than the analyst's numbers and they are based on the ML numbers which I believe have the DUV shipment slowdown factored in. These numbers could produce $80-120 prices in 2001. Again please comment! Cary

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