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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: sam who wrote (2101)10/4/1997 6:15:00 PM
From: BarryH   of 6136
 
Sure there are other things factored into the price..but my guess is that 1/2 to 3/4 of the price has to do with Viracept. When I first looked into AGPH last June, I said "My God..a biotech where most of the technical risk is gone, and I'm essentially betting on the business risk". That's where they are now. If you wanted to buy AGPH three years ago while there was still lots of technical risk , you could have had it for 5. Or for 17 prior to sucessful Phase 3 trials.(Post split) Take away Viracept and your back to those sorts of valuations.

Also, look at VRTX. No PI product sales, but in the PI game. Market cap $700MM. When they get Phase 3 and then NDA approval, the valuation should go up. How much depends on what the sales projections look like for them. How much of VRTX's value is based on PI sales?

BarryH
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