Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 177.32

+1.2%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2618)	10/4/1997 7:13:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	of 10921

Cary, Re: ...in the outcome of a dialogue with Ian (and he has to suffer that thread because he is a stockholder<g>). No, I don't. <smile> I'm also a CUBE holder and I seldom even go through the 1 liners on that board. Unfortunately, there's an occasional useful post on the CYMI board, so I still scan it quickly. Thanks for a chuckle. Re: estimates in your last post. I believe they now represent the status quo trend. As such, I think they're likely to be closer than Zack's or First Call. Last numbers I saw indicated that Fab Capacity usage was greater than 90% and climbing. Unit volumes (chips/wafers) continue to grow quite rapidly. I believe that this must trigger another round of building Fabs; and that those fabs will come onstream at .25u or smaller design rules. Re growth rate: Your current estimates are for 27.43%CAGR ($3.85-$1.46 = 163.7%growth over 4years). This is a much slower pace than seen for either CYMI or the Laser sector of the industry. I believe these lasers will be one of the keys to the chipbuilding future. Thus abnormal, above trend growth will continue and accelerate. To get to 40% growth rate would be 284% growth during the period or $5.60 earnings for the last year. I believe the truth will probably fall somewhere in between your current estimate (3.85) and a 40%CAGR ($5.60). I'm also influenced by Andrew V's comments about the death of Optical Lithography being 3 years out for the last couple decades. I believe that CYMI will be the leader selling laser light sources at least until 2010. (Can one really call DUV and EUV "light"? [g] The 100% market share is unrealistic other than my belief that we've significantly underestimated the chip growth that will be seen during the period. I would not be surprised to see CYMI retain more than 90% of the market share for this sector. Have a good weekend, Ian.

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