Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 177.32

+1.2%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (2619)	10/4/1997 8:24:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 10921

Ian, RE: "Your current estimates are for 27.43%CAGR ($3.85-$1.46 = 163.7% growth over 4years). This is a much slower pace than seen for either CYMI or the Laser sector of the industry." My estimates include 100% market share, 18% margins, "eventual 1/3 support revenue" in the 5th year (4 years out), $425K / laser, and the ML DUV predictions! If you want a faster growth rate, you need to make a case for a faster ramp up in DUV steppers or another significant consumer of CYMI lasers. I am inclined to ramp CYMI's market share down from 100% to 80-90% in the 5th year, but I will not reduce growth rates while you are predicting higher rates. Please try to come up with adjusted numbers. My $1.46 is considerably higher than current concensus estimates. If I am too high at the beginning, the CAGR grows to your suggested rates if I am OK at the end. I repeat, a 20-30 PE on my 3/02 estimate yields a price range of $80-120. 4 times in 4 years starts to get interesting. I might start pulling for more downside movement. Thank you, Cary

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