New source of energy needed - Nuclear is under utilized in most places.
With France getting 80% of their electricity from Nuclear sources, they are able to run high speed trains all over.
Plug-in hybrid cars will be needed so that electricity can displace oil.
If nuclear can be used to replace much of the oil used in transportation, this will allow scarcity to be vastly reduced.
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Several other items contribute to the reduction of scarcity -
The OLD SCHOOL FACTORS these factors are still operating, and still have positive effects -
1. Large scale application of of electric motors and various degrees of automation. This occurred from 1890 to today.
2. Economies of scale in mining and new techniques such as flotation, heap leap leaching, and electrowinning.
3. The green revolution increases in agricultural productivity.
4. Development of new materials, such as aluminum for lighter vehicles, and plastics that make manufacturing easier.
5. Standardized shipping containers, better port facilities, better highways to move goods.
6. The accumulation of both private capital, public goods (like highways) and knowledge over time.
NEW FACTORS that are still unappreciated -
1. Much cheaper electronic communication and the internet.
2. Increase computer power for design, control, optimization, and inventory reduction.
3. New knowledge of market and capitalist oriented economic development models.
4. Improved medical and nutritional practices increase effective lifespans, resulting in greater payoff for investment in education and specialized skills.
5. The development of material sciences, which is able to improve the longevity and performance of materials, allowing much longer useful lives for machines. Rustproofing, improved lubricants, surface treatments, etc. are easy to forget. Even automobile tires last much longer and rarely blow compared with 30 years ago.
6. Near universal use of training and education to improve job performance quickly. (thanks to El Mat for pointing this out - in the US, this is almost invisible as water is to a fish)
7. Effective population control in most countries, which controls the denominator for per capita wealth.
8. Wider movement of capital and knowledge, optimizing world wide returns.
9. The recent (post cold war) declines in world wide military spending, providing more capital for growth.
World GDP is growing about 4 % per year - that is pretty fast compared to almost any historical period. That will mean world GDP doubles in about 18 years.
Almost every positive factor is either increasing or accumulating. |
