Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 177.32

+1.2%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2620)	10/4/1997 9:48:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	of 10921

Cary and Ian: I find it interesting that VLSI expects sales of DUV steppers to climb from $459m in 1996 to $1.366B in 1997 to $5.059B in 1998 and $8.04B in 2000 (see Cymer post 3599). Extrapolating the growth rate of DUV steppers to Cymer yields very different results than what has been calculated thus far. VLSI is projecting a fast ramp up in 1996 - 1997 (197%) and 1997 - 1998 (270%) with a slowdown in 1998 to 2000 with a total of 58.92% growth for 1998-2000. How reliable are these guys at VLSI? I don't know. But I know they are paid by the industry to be right. Check out this post that seems to confirm the fast ramp up of Duv: techstocks.com Now check out this post: techstocks.com Here is the Angus comment on VLSI "numbers" (I am assuming he is talking about the same VLSI number quoted above) as reported by an SI member (see post 4442 on Cymer): "VLSI did a top down research analysis. By this I mean that he contacted the actual manufacturers to determine where they thought DUV was headed relative to current and future demand. And so, by his estimation, from his research, he determined that DUV was going to be in great demand and become even greater. Am I comfortable [with those numbers]? Well there is nothing in the market right now that would discount his numbers." Angus seemed to agree with the notion that the market could call for 700 systems in 1998 (see Cymer post 4421). Now let's go to the conference call in September where Atkins or Angus said regarding demand for DUV steppers in 1997 - 1998: " But as far as where we are right now our 1997 and 1998 expectations are certainly in line with the most recent VLSI forecasts." As a general rule with this company at this point, I will put more faith with managements' estimates than with the analysts' based upon my review of managements' actions in the face of their failure to show at the Needham conference.

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