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Politics : The Environmentalist Thread
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To: mistermj who wrote (13171)5/31/2007 6:27:05 PM
From: neolib  Read Replies (1) of 36917
 
This is the paragraph from which your quote came:

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHG's alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular business as usual' or 1% per year carbon dioxide growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change (whatever one of those is) for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

I have no problem at all with that paragraph. If you read up on the subject you will see that all of the items mentioned have on going research and all are included in the models. There are some good graphs I've seen which actually split out the GHC, solar, and cooling aerosols so you can see the individual contributions.
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