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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2131)6/1/2007 4:47:32 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Mq, I'm just having a look upstream to review previous decisions and ideas to do a reality check since TJ is gloating. You were indeed wrong on the Dow 16,000 by Feb 2002 with half a decade having gone by and only now is the Dow starting to trend towards that figure.

And, there is plenty of hot air puffing up the housing market with debt piled on debt since 2001 and interest rates squeezing people and deficits crunching them.

TJ did indeed have it largely correct. While he was wrong in that there wasn't a financial reset, Rapture and generalized carnage, there was a long valley of lowered interest rates as you expected, declined share prices [especially in the biotelecosmictechdot.com realm] and then a vast housing debt build up.

We are still not out of the woods.

But it is a couple of years now since the housing top and there is no catastrophe. In NZ$ and gold terms, housing in the USA has taken a large pummeling. But Americans don't notice that. So they are disappointed with their minor US$ price drops, but not panicked at the loss compared with other measures.

The USA financial system has got a lot of flexibility.

Mqurice
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