Thursday, May 31, 2007
FAQ - The Thompson Candidacy!
Posted by Dean Barnett | 9:48 AM
1) As an avowed Romney supporter, you must be ready to jump out the window because Fred entered the race. Admit it – you’re despondent!
Not at all. The stronger the field, the stronger the ultimate nominee will be. Besides, I wasn’t kidding about the McCain campaign being over. I truly believe he’ll drop out before the leaves change, probably some time between Ames and Labor Day. And a two man race at such an early date would be unhealthy.
2) At the risk of veering off subject, don’t you give any credence to those polls that show McCain doing well?
The ARG ones? The ones that have Fred at 6%? No, I don’t. And honestly, I don’t believe the McCain campaign does either.
3) Okay – back on subject. If you want Romney to win, why do you welcome Fred into the race? Are you insane?
Insane like a fox! To date, it’s been too easy for Mitt. McCain knocked himself out. And, I might as well predict this for the record, but before I do let me reiterate that if Rudy gets the nomination I will support him enthusiastically. I believe that sometime between now and the end of the road, Rudy will commit a campaign blunder that will be bigger than the Dean Scream, “Stop Lying About my Record”, Ed Muskie crying on the back of a truck and George Romney’s “brainwashed” comment combined. I think Rudy will establish the gold standard for all future campaigning boners.
4) Why?
He’s an undisciplined campaigner, and the candidates are in the spotlight for 15 hours a day, 6 days a week. Rudy’s style makes for a ticking time-bomb in this age of the YouTube.
5) How will Fred be as a candidate?
He’s formidable. But he’ll obviously have the problem of living up to the hype.
6) Could anyone live up to the hype he’s received?
No. The Republican Party views him as the potential savior for a field that it considers somewhat unsatisfactory. But Republicans are never wholly satisfied with their candidates. We’re not like Democrats who can somehow become true-blue believers for every Tom, Dick and Kerry that heads their ticket. We’re at the other end of the spectrum.
7) How so?
Time for a history lesson! In 1980, Ronald Reagan was too old and not quick enough on his feet. Republicans were so uneasy with his assumed ascendancy that they even flirted with the then-unknown George H.W. Bush. Hard as it may be to believe, Bush stunned Reagan in Iowa. In 1988, Bush 41 wrestled with the English language and came across as a wimp. In 1992, Pat Buchanan almost won New Hampshire, showing just how unpopular the incumbent had become in his own party. In ’96, Dole was too old, too tongue-tied and not conservative enough. And in 2000, of course, we nominated a man with a flimsy résumé who every time he spoke wrestled with the English language like it was a rabid alligator. Mind you, this is how we viewed our own nominees.
8) So how will the bloom come off the rose that is Fred?
Fred’s a Howard Baker moderate, or at least he was. He’s also supposed to be not particularly inspiring on the retail campaigning level. He’s also a little old-ish. Even though he’s only a few years older than Mitt and Rudy, that doesn’t look like the case.
9) Ha! A Romney supporter accusing Fred of being a closet moderate. That’s rich.
I offer that not as a critique, but rather as an illustration of how Fred’s golden veneer will get tarnished once he jumps in the ring. And, as is the case with Romney, it’s not that big a deal. Voters care a lot more about where politicians stand than where they used to stand in 1994.
10) So who gets hurt most by Thompson’s entry?
Well, McCain was toast anyway, so he doesn’t count. Rudy and Mitt will feel some pressure and lose some supporters. I would assume the real heart-broken ones are the second tier candidates who were hoping that one of the frontrunners would falter and they would have a chance to move up. McCain faltered, and now his spot will be filled by Fred.
11) How about Fred’s health?
I have to disagree with my mentor. I think this is a complete non-issue. All the candidates are presumed mortal and vulnerable. There are literally billions of people who wouldn’t mind taking out the American president. In 1984, the country re-elected a very old-looking and old-sounding Ronald Reagan who had barely survived an assassination attempt and would soon face cancer, something that by the way didn’t phase the nation at all. The only way a candidate’s health becomes an issue is if his running mate is seen as not ready for primetime.
12) So how does Fred win?
This is where things get dicey for Fred – the actual roadmap to victory. Retail campaigning isn’t his strength. If he loses Iowa and New Hampshire, he would have to score an overwhelming victory in South Carolina to get back on track. And, as an additional problem, because of his late start his campaign is likely to be money starved from the git-go. If he survives the initial primaries but in a weakened state, it’s unlikely he’ll have the money to compete seriously on Mega-Tuesday.
13) I asked how he wins. You told me how he would lose. Let me try again – how does he win?
By having Fred-mania sweep the party starting before Labor Day and continuing through Iowa. It could happen. But my money’s still on Mitt. But, as with Rudy, if Fred’s the nominee I will support him enthusiastically.
URL:http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/g/d5541b67-e6fc-4482-8137-a2fda913c9c9 |
