27% Likely to Vote for Bloomberg as Third Party Candidate
Friday, June 01, 2007
rasmussenreports.com
It’s been 147 years since a “third-party” candidate won the White House. That man, Abe Lincoln is known to history for many things including becoming the first Republican President. Since it hasn’t happened in 147 years, any discussion about third-party campaigns must include the phrase “long-shot.”
Still, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg may be considering such a campaign and is reportedly willing to spend a billion dollars to get his message out. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll found that 27% of American voters would be Somewhat (20%) or Very (7%) likely to vote for Bloomberg.
An even larger number—39%--would consider voting for Bloomberg vote under the right circumstances. Just 28% would not vote for him while 33% are not sure.
These numbers suggest that if Bloomberg can find a message that resonates, he might win some states and deny either major party candidate a majority in the Electoral College. That could lead to Electoral Chaos by creating a deadlock in both the Electoral College and the House of Representatives. Such a process would be unprecedented and unpredictable, sure to be studied by historians and political scientists for generations. There’s also an outside chance it could lead to a President Bloomberg.
If Bloomberg somehow found himself in second place as Election 2008 progresses, the dynamics get even more interesting. Remember, Ross Perot was second in the polls six months before the 1992 campaign. But, then he dropped out of the race for a period of time before re-entering the fray. He never regained his earlier status but still wound up with 19% of the vote.
In 2008, if it became clear that the Republican candidate couldn’t win, 46% of all voters say they’d pull the lever for Bloomberg over New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D). Just 37% would vote for Clinton. If the Democratic candidate couldn’t win, 35% of voters would prefer former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani while 34% would prefer Bloomberg.
Bloomberg is contemplating running at a time when the brand names of the two major parties is not doing well --the number of people considering themselves Republicans has dropped to the lowest level of the Bush era and the number of Democrats has just declined to the lowest level in seventeen months.
If the Mayor were to spend some of his money developing a potentially competitive third party, 49% of voters say they’d consider voting for a Congressional candidate supported by Bloomberg. Only 18% would not consider a Bloomberg Congressional candidate.
If he goes that route, 54% would want the Mayor to recruit business and community leaders as Congressional candidates. Only 11% would rather see him recruit those who have held office in other parties.
All of this is pure speculation, of course. Today, just 7% of Americans say they’ve followed stories of a potential Bloomberg candidacy very closely. The whole concept is a blank slate. Earlier head-to-head polling found Bloomberg struggling to reach double digits in national polls, although he has polled as high as 23% in New Jersey.
Nobody knows who the major parties will nominate and no one can realistically project the impact of a billion dollar campaign. It’s also unclear what sort of message Bloomberg might articulate. If he simply promised to be a better manager than the other candidates, it’s hard to see how he’d have much impact.
It’s also hard to see how Bloomberg could set himself apart from other candidates on the situation in Iraq. On immigration, he would have some flexibility so long as he demonstrated a serious commitment to enforcing the border and reducing illegal immigration. But, again, that is unlikely to set him apart from other candidates.
However, if Bloomberg credibly adopted a theme getting voters back into the national theme of checks and balances that might change the equation. The Rasmussen Reports national telephone poll found that 44% of all voters say they’d be more likely to vote for Bloomberg if he supported initiative rights so that important issues could be placed on the ballot for voters to decide directly. That would turn off just 16% of potential voters.
The results are similar (41% to 21%) if Bloomberg were to support a proposal requiring all tax increases to be approved by voters. Sixty-two percent (62%) of all voters favor this policy and only 18% are opposed. Traditional party politicians, however, tend to resist giving voters more power through initiative and tax approval approaches.
Thirty-five percent (35%) say they’d be more likely to vote for Bloomberg if he were to build a true third party rather than just make an ego-driven run for the White House.
But, when all is said and done, Americans have their doubts about a possible third party candidate. Just 23% believe it’s possible for Bloomberg to be elected—even after being told he would spend a billion dollars on the campaign. Forty-three percent (43%) say it is not possible while 34% are not sure. So, assuming he can find the right campaign theme, Bloomberg’s biggest challenge might be convincing voters he has a chance to win.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
This national telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 30, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. (see Methodology) |
