The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: saveslivesbyday who wrote (78763)	6/3/2007 5:12:02 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (2) of 306849

<<Maudlin is either on the cutting edge, or simply a misguided contrarian. Only history will tell.>> Uh no. Do you listen to Bloomberg radio every or any morning? This will be the most well publicized recession ever if there is one, which I think the chance of is close to zero. It's a classic mid-cycle slowdown and a perfect 10 on the job of the Fed. We're ALREADY had or are in slow growth. Analysts have ALREADY ratcheted earnings estimates so that they are low enough to beat. In 2000, analysts had 20% earnings growth and the market gave -20%. Today valuations are predicated on 5% growth if that. The death of the consumer has been talked about for the last 2 years if you exclude the last 20. These are not the hallmarks of a frothy top or even an environment where contrarianism means anything. It's as Mauldin has said a "muddle through" economy. The real contrarian is ME who takes all the bearish talk here and does completely opposite. When housing bottoms at the end of this season, you ain't seen nothing yet by way of the economy and stock market.

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