Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (7096)	6/5/2007 6:45:56 PM
From: Triffin	of 26053

Ganu forecast from weatherunderground .. Animated satellite imagery and two recent microwave images (051522z ssmis and 051729z amsu) indicate that the core deep convection, particularly over the eastern semi-Circle and convective banding, have weakened rapidly due to dry air entrainment, land interaction, and a sharp decrease in ocean heat content. This hostile environment is forecasted to continue to impact the system through the forecast period. Tc 02a continues to track along the southwest periphery of the mid- level subtropical ridge and is forecast to track northwestward through tau 24. After tau 24, the track is foreacst to become more north-northwestward as the system moves into a weakness in the steering ridge enhanced by an approaching shortwave trough. The 05/12z upper air analysis shows this weakness over The Straits of hormuz currently and expected to remain in this area. There is increased uncertainty in track after tau 24 since steering will shift to a lower level as the tc weakens under 60 knots and this low-level steering could produce a more westward track toward ash shariqah. It is important to note that tc 02a will become a very weak tc with 30-40 knot intensity after tau 48 due to extremely dry air. Therefore, regardless of the 48-72 hour track, the system will not be a significant tc. The available dynamic aids have stabilized and are in good agreement with the northwestward track and rapid weakening trend. This forecast is based on a consensus of the aids through the period but reflects slower track speeds after tau 36 due to land interaction and weaker steering. Maximum significant wave height at 051800z is 32 feet. Next warnings at 060900z and 062100z.// Antsy tanker owners will tell their captains to move soon .. Triff ..

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