bloomberg.com
Indonesia's Fatality Rate From Bird Flu Rises to 87% (Update1)
By Karima Anjani
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bird flu has killed more than four of every five people infected with the disease in Indonesia this year, heightening concern over the nation's progress in controlling the virus two years after its first human case.
The H5N1 strain of avian influenza is confirmed to have infected 98 people in Indonesia since June 2005. Twenty of this year's 23 cases were fatal. Scientists have even found traces of H5N1 in the soil of potted plants, probably introduced in manure from infected poultry, said Bayu Krisnamurthi, chief executive officer of Indonesia's committee on avian and pandemic flu.
While the H5N1 virus has killed millions of poultry in about 60 countries, human infection is rare, with fewer than 200 fatalities recorded globally. Higher levels of the virus in the environment could put more people at risk of infection and provide more opportunity for it to mutate into a pandemic strain.
``There's an indication that the virus may infect humans more easily than it used to,'' Krisnamurthi told reporters in Jakarta today. ``We need to study this suspicion further. Hopefully it won't be scientifically proven.''
Disease trackers are trying to gauge whether exposure to fewer diseased poultry results in the same level of infection risk, said Amin Subandrio, who heads an expert panel for the Indonesian government's avian flu committee.
``Previously, confirmed H5N1 cases had been exposed to as many as 20 chickens. Recently, victims were infected from one chicken, for example,'' Subandrio said in a telephone interview today. ``Hypothetically, the virus might be more easily transmitted to humans from birds.''
No Significant Changes
Studies show no sign that the virus in Indonesia has undergone any significant change that makes it more dangerous to humans, Krisnamurthi said today. The higher fatality rate among avian-flu patients this year could be attributed to a delay in the commencement of antiviral treatment, he said.
In 2006, 45 of Indonesia's 55 recorded H5N1 patients died. The previous year, 13 of 20 cases were fatal.
The H5N1 virus has infected 309 people in a dozen countries, killing 188 of them, since late 2003, according to the World Health Organization. Almost all human H5N1 cases have been linked with close contact with sick or dead birds, such as children playing with them or adults butchering them or plucking feathers, according to the WHO.
Pandemic Threat
Scientists have said the virus might kill millions if it were to spread as easily among people as seasonal flu, which causes as many as 500,000 deaths each year.
A survey conducted between January and April of 2,500 Indonesians living in rural and urban areas of the islands of Java and Sulawesi found that about 15 percent of people said avian flu has the potential to infect them or their families, prompting them to implement protective measures.
``The findings led to the conclusion that communication is key and needs to intensify,'' Krisnamurthi said today. A nationwide campaign began about six months ago, he said.
To contact the reporter for this story: Karima Anjani in Jakarta at kanjani@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 6, 2007 06:01 EDT |
